We Were Right — What Now?
Six months ago, I posted an article on my blog predicting that gold prices still had room to grow. I was right.
Here’s a quick update on where we stand: as of November 2025, gold prices have risen by approximately 24–27% since May. The exact figure depends slightly on the data source and the specific date used as a reference, but the consensus is clear — gold has seen a significant rally over the past six months.
I was spot on with that call, and I hope some of my readers took the opportunity to buy gold back then. But let’s set gold aside for now — we’ve talked about it enough, and our view remains the same today.
The Current Market — Not as Predictable
Today’s market conditions are far more complex. The U.S. stock market is at an all-time high. Commodity prices are soaring. Bond yields continue to rise.
Take AI-related spending, for example. Capital expenditure in artificial intelligence and data centers has been one of the biggest drivers of stock valuations this year. Everything tied to AI or data infrastructure looks — quite frankly — overvalued at current prices.
So, is it time to short the market?
The answer is simple, but not easy. As the famous quote goes:
“The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.”
This is a warning against trying to “call the top.” Markets can stay overpriced longer than we expect, and being early can be just as costly as being wrong. Instead, this is a reminder for all of us to take a less aggressive approach, especially now that we recognize how inflated U.S. equities have become.
A Smarter Move — Diversify and Protect
Consider diversifying away from U.S.-centric investments.
Reduce your holdings. Start taking profits. Park your cash.
Short-term bonds look increasingly attractive — yields are high, and with the Federal Reserve needing to stimulate the economy to fulfill its dual mandate (especially around unemployment), we have a window of opportunity to benefit from those yields safely.
Also, diversify out of the U.S. dollar. Look toward emerging markets and commodities. The de-dollarization trade is very real — though it won’t unfold in a month or two. It will take years, perhaps decades. The fall of an empire is always slow — but we’ll be here, watching it unfold.